US protests are only an issue for investment markets if they significantly impact economic activity

2020 turned out far better for investors than was feared. 2021 is expected to provide solid returns & see a further rotation from pandemic winners to cyclical investments.

Review of 2020, not what it was supposed to be - Outlook for 2021 - Recovery

For some years now Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) has been gaining prominence as a solution to the perceived failure of traditional economic policies to achieve full employment & meet inflation targets, despite at or near zero interest rates.

The US election has been close and final counting as well as legal challenges could still upset the result, but the now highly likely outcome is a Biden Presidency.

The RBA has cut the cash rate to a record low 0.1% & announced a broad-based quantitative easing program.

Despite a 35% or so plunge in share markets earlier this year; on the back of the pandemic and rough patches in 2018, 2015 and 2011, well diversified Australian investors have seen pretty good returns over the last 10 years. The median balanced growth superannuation fund returned 5.8% pa over the five years to August and 7.3% pa over 10 years and that’s after fees and taxes. While that’s dull compared to the double digit returns of the higher inflation world of the 1980s and 1990s, it’s pretty good once low inflation of 2% pa or less is allowed for.

The 2020-21 Australian Budget – spend, spend, spend as the focus remains on recovery and jobs, jobs, jobs

Australia’s “eye popping” budget deficit and public debt blow out – can it be paid off? Does it matter?

In its September board meeting, we saw another move out of the RBA to support the Australian economy through COVID-19, and there could be more to come.

Victoria’s tightening lockdown could knock at least $12bn off the Victorian and national economy and delay the return to positive Australian GDP growth to the December quarter.

The thought of various government support measures expiring in the months ahead, causing some sort of fiscal cliff over which economies and share markets will plunge, has caused much consternation. But as with the original fiscal cliff of December 31, 2012 in the US, it’s likely to be tapered into a fiscal slope.

The past financial year was poor for investors as coronavirus knocked economies into what is likely to be their biggest hit since the 1930s. Shares were hit hard, but the blow was softened by a strong rebound in the June quarter. This note reviews the last financial year and takes a look at the outlook.

A serious second wave of coronavirus cases in major developed countries is the biggest risk facing equity markets, and one investors will need to watch closely.

The strong rally in shares since their March lows reflects a combination of economic reopening, signs of recovery, policy stimulus and once pessimistic investors closing underweight or short positions.

Australian house prices starting to fall – collapse likely averted but expect more weakness ahead

There has been much debate about the short-term economic and investment impact of coronavirus – on economic activity, unemployment, interest rates, house prices, shares, etc.

Australia’s federal budget deficit is expected to peak at around $200bn in 2020-21, or around 10% of GDP which will be the highest since the end of WW2.

Back in January when the bushfires were raging, I feared Australia’s luck had ran out. But right now, I thank god I live in The Lucky Country!

THE INSIDE WORKINGS OF AN INVESTING RULEBOOK.

This is an update of a note I wrote last November, but after the recent plunge in shares and the associated 10% or so loss in balanced growth superannuation funds through the March quarter, it’s particularly relevant now.

After a strong rally, in the short-term shares are vulnerable to bleak economic and earnings news

Central bank support to ensure the flow of money and credit through economies is an essential part of the global and Australian coronavirus economic rescue

MARKETS IN THE AGE OF (MIS) INFORMATION

While shares have rallied 15-20% from their March low and may have started a bottoming process

Significant government support is essential to enable parts of the economy to successfully hibernate

Global share markets have fallen into a bear market, but whether this turns out to be long or short depends on how long the hit to the economy from coronavirus lasts.

The Australian housing market is at risk from the coronavirus recession Australia has now entered. A relatively short recession that sees unemployment rise to around 7.5% would likely only set prices back around 5% or so after which prices would bounce back.

Successful investing can be really difficult in times like the present with immense uncertainty around the impact of coronavirus on the outlook.

The rout in financial markets has continued, on the back of coronavirus, made worse by a flow on to oil markets.

How the next generation is investing?

The plunge in share markets over the last week has generated much coverage and consternation.

While reported new coronavirus cases in China have slowed, the pickup in cases outside China has led to a renewed sharp fall in share markets and bond yields.

Shares are vulnerable to a short-term correction - Key things to watch out for are recession and much higher inflation.

From bushfires to coronavirus - five ways to turn down the noise around investing

The China coronavirus outbreak has led to concerns of a global pandemic triggering an economic downturn. Our base case is that the outbreak will be contained allowing share markets and bond yields to rebound. However, uncertainty is high given that the coronavirus is more contagious than SARS albeit with lower mortality. Key to watch for is a peak in new cases and contained transmission in developed countries.

The Australian bushfire season that began in September has been horrific with more than 7 million hectares of bush destroyed, more than 25 deaths, significant loss of livestock, estimates of more than a billion wildlife animals killed and more than 1800 homes destroyed. More than 200 fires are still burning. Following the intensification of the bushfires over the Christmas/New Year period attention has now turned to the impact on the economy. This note looks at the key impacts.

Even if you secured a competitive package when you first took out your home loan, it’s worth reviewing each year1 to ensure the interest rates, fees and features continue to meet your needs. By refinancing you may be able to pay off your home loan sooner.

In this month’s issue we discuss how: James Maydew believes that having culture and strategy on the same blueprint is an absolute imperative climate change is impacting the real estate sector, and how leaders and businesses are standing up to the task of tackling it Julie-Anne Mizzi uses her innate passion for investing in infrastructure for those who need it, and the familiar airport retail experience is set for a makeover.

2019 saw growth slow, recession fears increase and the US trade wars ramp up, but solid investment returns as monetary policy eased, bond yields fell and demand for unlisted assets remained strong. 2020 is likely to see global growth pick up with monetary policy remaining easy. Expect the RBA to cut the cash rate to 0.25% and to undertake quantitative easing. Against this backdrop, share markets are likely to see reasonable but more constrained & volatile returns, and bond yields are likely to back up resulting in good but more modest returns from a diversified mix of assets. The main things to keep an eye on are: the trade wars; the US election; global growth; Chinese growth; and fiscal versus monetary stimulus in Australia.

While growth assets like shares go through bouts of short-term underperformance versus bonds & cash, they provide superior long-term returns. It makes sense that superannuation has a high exposure to them. The best approach is to simply recognise that super and investing in shares is a long-term investment.

There is no denying concerns about global debt, seemingly never ending QE, more debt trading on negative interest rates, inequality & geopolitical threats.

This month, we’re also showcasing our investment and market insights with an analysis of the revolution sitting at the world’s doorstep. The next industrial revolution, powered by 5G, looms so large it could eclipse the three preceding. The cyber world is set to be woven into our lives and jobs with unprecedented form and speed, having a transformative impact on how we live, work, socialise and invest.

The world of investing can be confusing and scary at times. But fortunately, the basics of investing are timeless and some investors (often the best) have a knack of encapsulating these in a sentence or two that is insightful and easy to understand. In recent years I’ve written several insights highlighting investment quotes I find particularly useful. Here are some more.

Salary sacrificing into super involves reducing your take-home pay to put more money away for your retirement. See what you need to know.

Since I first looked at “Five great charts on investing for income” two years ago, the Australian cash rate has halved, 10-year bond yields have fallen by two thirds and interest rates have resumed falling globally. Ever lower interest rates and periodic turmoil in investment markets provides an ongoing reminder of the importance of the income (cash) flow or yield an investment provides. The environment of low interest rates is challenging for those relying on investment income to fund their living costs and investing for income can seem daunting. So this note looks at five charts I find useful in understanding investing for income.

The claim that Australia has gone 28 years without a recession since the early 1990s recession ended in 1991 has been subject to some criticism in recent times with the economy sliding into a “per capita recession” where economic growth has been below population growth.

The past 10 years have seen pretty good returns for well-diversified investors. The median balanced growth superannuation fund returned 7.3% pa over the five years to July and 8.2% pa over 10 years and that’s after fees and taxes.

A significant spike in Australian petrol prices would pose a further threat to consumer spending and growth in Australia, adding to pressure on the RBA to ease further.

The Australian housing market remains far more complicated than optimists & doomsters portray it to be. Yes, it’s expensive and heavily indebted but talk of mortgage stress is overstated & it’s been under supplied The combination of rate cuts, the election and a modest regulatory relaxation have helped turn property prices back up, but the upswing is likely to be constrained

Since the RBA started cutting interest rates again back in June and in the process taking them closer to zero there has been increasing debate that it will deploy so-called “unconventional monetary policy measures” such as negative interest rates and quantitative easing. This debate has hotted up in recent weeks after the escalation in the US-China trade war posing a rising threat to global growth, numerous central banks cutting interest rates this month in a so-called “race to zero”, the Governor of Reserve Bank of New Zealand saying that negative rates are possible and RBA Governor Lowe saying that its “prepared to do unconventional things if the circumstances warranted it” even though he also said that QE was “unlikely”. News of a Danish lender offering negative mortgage rates has only added interest to the issue. But what exactly are these unconventional monetary policy measures? Do they work? Would they work in Australia? Are there better options? Will they be deployed and when? What will it all mean for investors?

Only last month share markets in the US and Australia were at record highs...

The past week saw a roller coaster ride in share markets with sharp falls after China responded to US President Trump’s latest tariffs by letting the Renminbi fall in value and ordering state-owned enterprises to halt agricultural imports from the US and the US responded by labelling China a currency manipulator, followed by a rebound as China limited downside in the Renminbi and more central banks eased only to see softness return as President Trump said US/China trade talks in September may not go ahead.

After a third round of talks made little progress last week, the US/China trade war has escalated badly with tit for tat moves on an almost daily basis by each side...

As widely anticipated, the US Federal Reserve has cut its key Fed Funds cash rate by 0.25% to a range of 2-2.25%...

Australia’s economy has often been described as “multi-speed” which occurs if growth across the states and territories varies significantly.

More Australian women are starting their own businesses but they remain under represented as entrepreneurs with many challenges holding them back. Find out more with AMP

This year, the federal government introduced laws called the Protecting Your Super package. It’s a big deal because it addresses important changes to superannuation that are here to stay. In fact, there’s even been an industry-wide campaign about how it’s time to check your super.

A common concern ever since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) ended a decade ago is that the next recession is imminent...

The past financial year saw a roller coaster ride for investors. Share markets plunged into Christmas only to rebound over the last six months. This note reviews the last financial year and takes a look at the investment outlook for 2019-20.

The new financial year will see a raft of laws and scheduled changes coming into force impacting everything from extra super contributions, through to the age you can access the pension and the introduction of a government-funded reverse mortgage option for self-funded retirees.

Rental payments can make a real dent in your bottom line so it’s a good idea to find a balance between location and lifestyle

Australian growth is likely to be weak over the next year or so and this will prompt further monetary easing and fiscal stimulus. > However, several positives suggest recession is unlikely: the current account deficit has collapsed; the $A helps stabilise the economy; the drag from falling mining investment is over; there is scope for extra fiscal stimulus; infrastructure spending is booming; there has been no sign of panic property selling; economic policy remains sensible; population growth remains strong; and the RBA can still do more.

The Australian dollar likely faces more downside as Australian growth is weaker than US growth and the RBA is likely to stimulate more than the Fed. However, downside may be limited to around $US0.65 given that the $A has already had a large fall, short positions in the $A are large, the iron ore price remains high (for now) and the Fed is also heading towards rate cuts. Given the downside risks for the $A and that being short the $A is a good hedge against threats to the global outlook it still makes sense for Australian investors to maintain a decent exposure to foreign currency via unhedged global investments.

Key points The RBA’s latest rate cut is aimed at heading off a further slowing in growth which would threaten higher unemployment and lower for longer inflation. Cutting the inflation target would be a big mistake. More rate cuts are likely to be needed ultimately taking the cash rate to a low of 0.5% next year. Ideally this will be combined with more fiscal stimulus. For investors it means low interest rates for even longer.

The Liberal-National Coalition has retained power in Australia’s Federal election. Find out what it means from an economic perspective. Learn more with AMP Capital.

The negatives weighing on Australian residential property prices remain significant but the past few weeks have seen a number of developments...

If you’re relocating to a new city, it’s a good idea to do your homework about living costs…particularly if it’s Sydney.

The trade war between the US and China has returned after talks to resolve their trade differences broke down...

Which of these rookie errors sound all too familiar when it comes to you and your squad?

Seasonal patterns typically see shares do well from around November to May and not so well from May to November...

Surprisingly weak Australian inflation has led to expectations the Reserve Bank will soon cut rates...

Australian elections tend to result in a period of uncertainty which have seen weak gains on average for shares followed by a bounce once it’s out of the way...

The 2019-20 Budget “delivers” the long-awaited surplus and increased fiscal stimulus mainly via tax cuts/offsets...

Find out how the measures announced in the 2019-20 Federal Budget could affect you Federal Treasurer Josh Frydenberg has handed down the Morrison Government’s first Federal Budget. Among the proposed changes were personal income tax cuts and changes to super rules. Read on for a round-up of the proposals put forward and a look at how they might affect your household expenses and financial future, whatever your stage of life

Now you can put more into super at the concessional rate of tax, starting from the 2019-20 financial year.

What to get right when it comes to money matters

The past week has seen a renewed intensification of concerns about global growth. Bond yields have plunged and associated growth worries have weighed on share markets...

Working out your risk profile is the first step towards developing a diversified investment portfolio

Growing support for higher taxes on the rich and greater government intervention in the economy suggest median voters have shifted to the left...

Dividends are great for investors. They augur well for earnings growth, provide a degree of security in uncertain times, are likely to comprise a relatively high proportion of returns going forward and provide a relatively stable source of income...

While nearly nine in 10 say they have a preference, less than five in 10 have discussed their wishes with their family. What about you?

Successful investing should be simple but increasing rules, regulations, choices and social media are making it anything but. At its core, it is still simple though...

While you’ve still got time on your side, check out this list of things to think about, so you can hopefully continue the party in retirement.

AMP Capital's Chief Economist Shane Oliver gives his forecast for house prices, economic growth and interest rates.

Australian home prices are likely to fall another 5-10% this year driven by a further 15% or so fall in Sydney & Melbourne. Tight credit, rising supply and falling price expectations are the main negatives...

Despite continued volatility, 2019 is likely to be better for diversified investors than 2018 was...

The Fed has raised interest rates for the ninth time since first raising rates this cycle three years ago, taking the Fed Funds rate from a range of 2-2.25% to 2.25-2.5% reflecting ongoing confidence in US growth...

If your SMSF contains residential investment properties, it’s understandable you could be feeling nervous...

In the current economic environment many companies are finding it difficult to grow earnings organically so they are turning to acquisitions more frequently...

Under the First Home Super Saver Scheme, individuals (who've never owned a home) are accessing a portion of their super savings to do so. First home buyers have withdrawn more than $5 million from superannuation funds1 across the board under a federal government scheme designed to make housing more affordable. Townsends Business and Corporate Lawyers special counsel Michael Hallinan said he was surprised there had been such significant uptake in the scheme's first few months of operation. This was because there seemed to have been too little time to accumulate sufficient eligible contributions to make accessing the scheme – which can only be done once – worthwhile. The First Home Super Saver scheme has been up and running since July 1 this year.

> The pullback in shares could still have further to go but a deep (grizzly) bear market is unlikely as US, global or Australian recession are unlikely. > Increasing US Federal Reserve openness to a pause in raising rates, the likelihood of a US/China trade deal sometime in the next six months and the plunge in oil prices all add to confidence that a grizzly bear market is unlikely.

> Getting your personal finances right can be a challenge. Here are 13 tips that may be of use: shop around when it comes to financial services; don’t take on too much debt; allow that interest rates can go up as well as down; allow for rainy days; credit cards are great but they deserve respect; use your mortgage (if you can) for all longer term debt; start saving and investing early; allow that asset prices go up and down; try and see financial events in their longer-term context; know your risk tolerance; make the most of the Mum and Dad bank; be wary of the crowd; and there is no free lunch...

We check out the three largest contributors to household spending in Australia and where people would source cash if living expenses increased. Find out more with AMP.

Some commentators claim shares are way overvalued and so a crash is inevitable...

Dr Shane Oliver explains what investors should keep in mind.

Sharp market falls with headlines screaming that billions of dollars have been wiped off the share market (funny that you never see the same headlines on the way up!) are stressful for investors as no one likes to see the value of their investments decline. However, several things are worth bearing in mind...

Which of these money mistakes sound all too familiar when it comes to you and your squad? Find out more with AMP.

The first strategy is to always pay more than the minimum.

A surge in financial information and opinion combined with our inclination to focus on negative news risks making us worse investors: more fearful, more jittery, more reactive, less reflective & more short term. This is potentially harmful to our long-term financial health.

The period August to October is a time for anniversaries of financial market crises – the 1929 share crash, the 1974 bear market low, the 1987 share crash, the Emerging market/LTCM crisis in 1998, and of course the worst of the Global Financial Crisis in 2008...

For years now, many have told us that Australia is heading for an imminent recession. By contrast official forecasts have long been looking for several years of above trend growth. In the event neither has happened and we don’t see them happening anytime soon. Against this backdrop there are five things you should know about the Australian economy...

The past five years have seen pretty good returns for well-diversified investors. While cash and bond returns have been modest, growth assets have been strong. Average balance growth superannuation funds have returned 8.5% pa over the five years to June and that’s after fees and taxes. This is particularly impressive given that inflation has been around 2%.

For the last two calendar years the Australian dollar has defied our expectations for weakness. But after hitting $US0.81 in January it’s been trending down as US interest rates fell below the Australian cash rate, the threat of a US-driven trade war increased and it recently broke below a short-term range around $US0.74 and fell as low as $US0.72 on fears of contagion to global growth from a crisis in Turkey.

More than one in five Australian’s in their mid 20s still live at home. Find out why and learn more with AMP.

This list of common money personalities could shed light on how you and those around you measure up. Find out more with AMP.

Find out what lender's mortgage insurance is and how it could affect your home loan and what you pay back. AMP explains in simple terms.

FAQ regarding AMP and the Royal Commission

AMP Tomorrow Maker Sam Marwood and friends are matching retiring farmers with those wanting to work the land but lack the financial means.

Choosing the right super investment options at the right time could make a difference to how much money you have when you retire. Find out more with AMP.

Eligible first home buyers can now withdraw certain voluntary super contributions to put toward a home deposit. Find out more with AMP.

Aussies aged 65 and over can now top up their super with the proceeds from the sale of their main residence. Learn more about downsizing for retirement with AMP.

Find out how AMP News&insights readers will be keeping their kids entertained in the school holidays without forking out a bundle of cash. Follow AMP's budget tips for the school holidays.

If you file for divorce, or separate from your de facto, who gets to keep the superannuation money? Discover more about superannuation and divorce today with AMP.

Retirement planning? Ensure you make the most of your money. Discover how to make every dollar count with these five simple tips. Learn more today with AMP.

See what you need to know about claiming work-related expenses and don’t forget to lodge your tax return by 31 October, unless you’re using a tax agent.

How much super should I have at my age? If you’re wondering whether your super is on track, compare it to others your age. Learn more today with AMP.

With comprehensive credit reporting due to kick off from 1 July 2018, paying your bills on time will become even more important.

This financial year is the first time employees can claim a tax deduction for their personal super contributions. Find out more with AMP.

Everyone is different, so it’s important to ask yourself the right questions as the cover you require will depend on multiple factors.

We generally need to make earnings from 40 to 50 years in the workforce extend across what could be 80 to 90 years of living.

Raising kids can be an expensive business, so make sure you’re informed. What is the cost of raising a child in Australia? Discover more today with AMP.

Changes aimed at improving housing affordability have passed through parliament. Find out more with AMP.

Want to know how to live a longer, healthier life and make your money last? AMP explores what we can learn from the Blue Zones and the secrets of a long life.

If you’re wondering whether super is improving retirement outcomes for Australians, AMP takes a look at some of the findings.

If you can’t decide between a fixed or variable rate home loan, a split home loan could provide the best of both worlds. Discover the benefits with AMP.

The recent share pullback has seen much coverage and generated much concern. Dr Shane Oliver offers seven considerations for investors.

Investment bonds (also known as insurance or growth bonds) can be a tax-effective way to invest and save for the future. Find out more with AMP.

Achieving financial independence doesn’t have to be complex. Five commonsense steps could help you enjoy the life you want to lead.

Investing your super in an ethical way is a growing trend in Australia. Learn more about responsible and ethical super investment with AMP.

Get up to speed with the government subsidies you may be able to access before the kids go back to school. Browse by state and territory allowances.

Most Australians indicate their biggest life goal is a financial one, but many admit failing to plan is a roadblock.

A survey has revealed that around 90% of Aussies make impulse purchases. Find out how you can make your money go further with AMP.

Looking for a cheap holiday destination that won’t break the bank? Discover some of the best options both at home and abroad. Learn more today with AMP.

Find out where and what retirees are investing and spending their superannuation money on, and how you can use your super money today.

AMP Chief Economist Shane Oliver shares 5 reasons why the Australian property market is more complicated than the crash calls suggest.

Estate planning is about more than just making a will. Learn how to make sure you and your money are well looked after later in life.

Are you feeling the pinch? There are a couple of key principles you can follow to help improve your financial situation.

Discover the many ways that you can boost your superannuation and reap the rewards in retirement. Learn more with AMP today.

Increased life expectancy means more Aussies will need to retire later in life. Find out about the implications of this and the considerations you may need to make.

The best ways to sustain your physical, mental and financial wellbeing are sometimes the simplest. Discover five key tips to happy and healthy ageing.

Find out what lies ahead for the spring property market for first home buyers and upgraders from AMP Capital economist, Diana Mousina.

There are several questions people have about insurance. See what they are and what you can do! – AMP

See why more Aussies are choosing to live with their parents for longer.

An annuity provides you with a guaranteed income in retirement, regardless of how markets perform. Check out the pros and cons.

You’ve made an offer on your first property, but you’re not home and hosed yet. Find out what you can expect in the final weeks before settlement.

If you’re looking to turn your gap year into something employers will value, check out these five things worth taking note of.

Don't know whether to rent or buy a home? Check out the latest economic outlook to help you understand the benefits and downsides of both options.

If you’re wondering whether your super is on track, compare it to others your age.

Depending on your situation, there may be pros and cons to clearing your student debt before you have to. Here’s what you need to know!

Understand the difference between retirement age and preservation age? See how they affect your ability to retire, and the options available to you.

If you or someone you know has recently been made redundant, check out our 5-point action plan for what to do next.

The Australian retail environment remains in a tough position due to factors weighing on consumer demand along with discounting pressures from competitors.

More than ever, smart credit card use extends far beyond just clearing your debt.

Six things to think about when organising your family finances.

The price of childcare may be a deterrent to working, but loss of income, super and other benefits may cost more.

Taking out a mortgage together means commitment and compromise. Find out what you and your partner should consider early on.

Many Australians, in particular low-income earners, are set to benefit from the latest superannuation changes. See how new rules could impact you.

Is growth still in the forecast for the new financial year? Shane Oliver reveals his predictions

Economic abuse is recognised as a form of domestic violence in many, but not all, Australian states.

Discover the misconceptions of taking a gap year as a working adult and see why a sabbatical or career break may be just what you need.

Superannuation isn’t usually included in your will, so if you want it to end up in the right hands, it’s important to be across what you need to do.

Find out about investment opportunities in 2017 from Dr Shane Oliver, Head of Investment Strategy and Chief Economist, AMP Capital Investors.

With superannuation changes taking effect on 1 July 2017, find out how to use the time left to take advantage of potential opportunities.